Particularly when modelling marine systems, this often involves not only biological interactions, but also interactions with the physical and chemical environment. The course will consist of three parts. The first part will be a series of lectures that will provide an introduction into the most important topics within marine modelling. Using practical exercises, the student will get acquainted with the basic modelling techniques, and learn how to use the models to answer ecological and environmental problems.
In the last 2 weeks of the course, the students will do a modelling assignment where they independently develop e. At the last day of the course, the students will report on their work in a poster presentation. The techniques that are taught are general, and the course is therefore open to all biology students. Research PhD courses. Practical Modelling for Marine Biologists. Organizer Prof. Johan van de Koppel Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea ; Conservation Ecology , UoG Course information See the course flyer for more information Aim of the course This course aims to teach the topic and the tools involved in the modelling of ecosystems, using marine systems as focus area.
The framework presented here will serve as a template for data collection, and empirical insights from these diverse studies will be used to adjust models. End-to-end modeling using long-term monitoring data from the Baltic Sea. This graph shows the long-term eutrophication development in the twentieth century with lag effects of phytoplankton and the potential future development of the two land-use scenarios in the twenty-first century. The combination of natural- and social-science approaches into one framework constitutes a foundation for novel, conceptual, and empirical models and scenarios useful for investigating potential pathways to marine stewardship.
Numerical Modelling: Applications to Marine Systems, Volume 145
We will use these scenarios when we engage in dialogues with policymakers and practitioners, with the goal of discussing how the modeled, hypothetical futures of marine social—ecological systems could be avoided or encouraged in the real world. It should be acknowledged that it will not be possible to develop quantitative predictive models for all variables and outcomes of integrated social—ecological systems.
We also acknowledge that it will be a challenge to couple the two modeling approaches and that dealing with uncertainty in such complex models will represent an additional challenge. A complex social—ecological systems approach is, in itself, confronted with uncertainty and surprise Levin et al. However, the common framework presented here represents an important step toward integrating the understanding of the social and natural sciences.
This integration will contribute to the development of explorative models that can improve our understanding of coupled systems dynamics under certain empirical or theoretical assumptions. It will probably be possible to develop a long-term, historical, empirical understanding of changing markets and technologies and to model potential future driving forces and the effects of continuous change in such factors. However, understanding governance shifts and how such shifts influence actors will have to take the form of discrete interactions e.
A crucial factor to model will be the extent of spatial and temporal matches between environmental problems and policy responses.
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A high degree of mismatch might lead to ineffective governance; conversely, a highly matched system of adaptive governance could enable social—ecological sustainability Folke et al. We have made a case for integrated social—ecological scenarios as a tool for exploring future possibilities that can assist in providing advice for the stewardship of marine social—ecological systems. Realistic scenarios require an interdisciplinary approach and innovative combinations of methods and data. In the approach outlined here, existing data sets and case studies of the human dimension will be used to investigate the variables contributing to relevant outcomes for sustainable fisheries and marine stewardship.
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With this approach, we aim to suggest potential options for the future and also to describe crucial components enabling change toward desirable trajectories for marine stewardship and human well-being that avoid undesirable development pathways. The present article is a product of Nereus' international and interdisciplinary effort toward global sustainable fisheries; this is Nereus contribution no. Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University's objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide.
Sign In or Create an Account. Sign In. Advanced Search. Article Navigation. Close mobile search navigation Article Navigation. Volume Article Contents. The present state of affairs. The challenge of modeling the human dimension. A marine social—ecological framework to guide modeling and scenario analysis. Assessing multiple pathways and outcomes. References cited. Oxford Academic. Google Scholar. Andrew Merrie. Marc Metian. Wiebren J. Thorsten Blenckner. James R.
Ryan R. Yoshitaka Ota. Jorge L. Villy Christensen. Simon Birnbaum. Christoph Humborg. Maciej T.
Modelling the Marine Environment
Max Troell. Carl Folke. Rykaczewski, and Jorge L. Cite Citation.
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Permissions Icon Permissions. Abstract Human activities have substantial impacts on marine ecosystems, including rapid regime shifts with large consequences for human well-being. Figure 1. Open in new tab Download slide. Table 1. Open in new tab. Figure 2. Box 1. Adaptive governance of illegal fisheries in the Southern Ocean. Figure 3. Google Preview. Search ADS. Turning back from the brink: Detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it.
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